College Football: Week 11 picks against the spread

Record last week: 3–1

I finally did it. I broke the curse of the 2–2 weeks, finally going 3–1 for the weekend. Kansas State, Illinois, and North Carolina all won ATS, with Michigan State being my lone loss.

I knew better than to pick MSU. Picking MSU went completely against my usual betting philosophy and it cost me a perfect week.

Nonetheless, we move on, with another week of MACtion starting tonight!

Here’s the picks:

Cincinnati (-23.5) at South Florida

Cincy hasn’t covered since Week 7 when they destroyed UCF. The bearcats followed up that drubbing with a close win against Navy, closer than it looked win against Tulane, and a close win against Tulsa. Thankfully for Cincy, they get to play the USF Bulls, who are absolutely dreadful. Also, USF somehow covered last week against Houston, so I fully expect them to follow that performance up with a complete dud. Cincy by 30.

UConn (+41) at Clemson

This is the strangest spread of the week. Clemson, who never even scores 40 points, is favored by 40 over an actual college football team. Granted, it IS Uconn, but still. Clemson hasn’t even shown they can put up 40 in a game, so why should they be trusted to cover this? UConn lost to UMass, who went on to get drubbed by Rhode Island. UConn is probably the worst FBS team. But I just can’t trust Clemson to score 41+ against anybody. UConn will lose 31–3.

Missouri (-1) vs. South Carolina

Can anybody explain why Missouri is favored here? South Carolina is coming off a game in which they absolutely destroyed Florida (hilarious). Missouri hasn’t produced 1 impressive game all season. They get dominated by everybody who’s not in the OVC, MAC, or CUSA. South Carolina should be favored by a TD- so obviously Vegas knows something we don’t. Except a South Carolina implosion this week.

North Texas (+1) vs UTEP

Why is North Texas only 1 point dogs? UNT is horrible, UTEP is pretty good. UTEP is coming off a blowout loss to UTSA , which one would think would make Vegas predict a bounce back week. Instead, UTEP is barely favored to beat UNT. This implies to me that UNT will put up a good performance at home and sneak away with another win.

*crosses fingers hoping for a 4–0 week*